Salutations and hope this Saturday finds you well. I have good news for you fellow scientific travelers.
Coming back to Angus Manor (Still Open Under New Management) last night (see illustration 1). I had a “Eureka” moment on something that has vexed Canine Scientists for 12 generations (roughly 36 hooman years). I believe I have now solved the Patrol Success paradox.
As we all now, Madame Fluffy, in her seminal work published back in the 70’s (Fluffy, 1979, “Patrol Success Equation Revealed”, French Poodle Scientific Quarterly, Autumn 79, pp 54-72) postulated that patrol success was a combination of courage and canine experience (see Exhibit 1)
This intrigued the k9 scientific community, and funds were pored in by various guard dog agencies. Leibwitz Shepherd concentrated on the Experience portion of the equation, and made a breakthrough as seen in Exhibit 2 (Leibwitz, 1982, “Experience as it relates to Breed”, Alsatian Guard Dog Mercenary Weekly, 232, pp. 123-153).
Ah. Quite the breakthrough. Then the Italian Greyhound Scientist, Bowser, refined the breed component even more. Breaking down breed to both size and tenacity (called in some quarters the Terrier Component. He published his findings 4 generations after Leibwitz (Bowser, 1993, “Breed Composition Devolution”, New England Journal of Canine Science, 232, pp. 343-426). See Exhibit 3
Then we have been stuck in a dead end for many generations. We had some blind alleys and wrong turns, as Buffy Cocker published an index of breeds in Sussex Scientific Quarterly and Field Dog Trial Results, which famously had to be retracted later that year. But hope of a breakthrough came as the Chinese Government has poured a lot of funds into their defense canine program of late, and took out the inverse component of Leibwitz equation back in 2011 (Ping, 2011, “Breed Experience Component Evaluations and Findings”, Guangdzong Defense Annual Review, 23, pp. 72-97)
But then last night I had my breakthrough moment, which I think will set the canine scientific community on its 2 big upright ears, or in some cases, floppy ears. Since Angus has died, I note I am not leading the pack anymore. I’m trailing behind. Then, last night, to my embarrassment, a 3 pound (1.5 kg) Maltese came out of nowhere to our left on my patrol, and I bolted in the opposite direction to my right several meters, until my velocity was decelerated by my leash (material: pink fabric). So I realized without Angus, BOTH the courage component and the Experience component are much reduced. By an exponential and an addition factor, as seen in my hypothesis in Exhibit 4.
I will be presenting my equation, my supporting paper and supporting appendix of test results, at the Aberdeen Scottie War College Symposium this summer, and also look for my paper in Scientific Scottie American’s August Journal.